Samtskhe Javakheti lend surface annual and seasonal temperature analysis and prognosis based of global climate model

Author: Tea Eradze
Keywords: Temperature, Modeled temperature
Annotation:

Global warming is very important subject in XXI century. Comparison and analyses of historical observation and modeled temperature give us opportunity to avoid bad results or make it light. Climate change analyse of Samtskhe Javakheti in 1971-2000 yy and future possible evoluation in the end of XXI century (2071-2100yy) based on modelling gives us some resulst of future scenario. Temperature change trend of 4 stations of Samtskhe Javakheti are counted based on 4 meteorological stations in last 30 yy of previous century. Annual temperature trend in Akhaltsike, Abastumani and Akhalkalaki stations are 0,30C(10(yr)-1) and 0,20C(10(yr)-1) in Borjomi. The lowest, almost none change are in Spring and Autumn seasons. There are 0,40 C decadal incrise in Summer season in Akhaltsike and Abastumani stations, and the highest rate 0,60C(10(yr)-1) is in Winter season of Abastumani station observation. Difference between annual modelled and observed temperature in Borjomi are 1,950C, and 2,720C, 4,88 0C and 6,19 0C respectively Akhaltsike, Abastumani and Akhalkalaki stations. The highest difference exist is Akhalkalaki 10,130C in Summer season, the lowest – in Borjomi -0,250C in Winter season. Althogh we don’t forget that IPCC5 RCP8,5 corresponds the highest greenhouse gas emissions.

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ჰაერის წლიური და სეზონული ტემპერატურების ანალიზი და პროგნოზი გლობალური კლიმატური მოდელების გამოყენებით სამცხე-ჯავახეთის რეგიონისათვის [ka]